Recent Updates
- Germany: **Wholesale Trade Prices rebased from 2010=100 to 2015=100**
- Canada Regional: Quebec Economic Accounts (Q2), Quebec GDP by Industry (Jun)
- US: FRB Philadelphia Nonmfg Business Outlook Survey (Sep)
- Spain: International Trade (Jul), PPI (Aug), BOP (Q2)
- Scotland: New House Building (Q1)
- UAE: Abu Dhabi PPI (Q2); South Africa: Leading Indicators (Jul), BOP (Q2)
- Germany: Wholesale Trade Prices (Aug), IFO Business Climate Survey (Sep), Construction Orders, Employment, & Turnover (Jul), Price Indexes
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German IFO Index Marks Time
The German IFO Institute index has gone sideways in September...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Weaken
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index eased 0.3% during the last four weeks...
EMU Sinks on New Flash PMI Readings
The EMU PMI sank to its cyclical low in mid-2016 then hit its cycle higher in 2018...
U.S. Financial Accounts See Borrowing Ease with Downswing in Federal Government Needs
Borrowing in U.S. financial markets slowed in Q2 2018...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (6.4% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller August 19, 2005
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has improved since the low this past March and suggests that US economic growth has strengthened. Despite a dip in July to 0.16 from 0.40 in June, the three-month moving average of the CFNAI improved to 0.23 versus the low near zero.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
| Chicago Fed | July | June | July '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.16 | 0.40 | 0.61 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.41 |
