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- Norway: Oil & Gas Production (Nov)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Ease
Gasoline prices fell to an average $2.37 per gallon (-3.3% y/y)...
German IFO Gauge Is Weaker Than Expected in December
The widely watched German IFO gauge weakened noticeably in December...
U.S. Home Builder Index Weakens Considerably
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined to 56 during December...
Empire State Manufacturing Sector Improvement Moderates
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions declined to 10.9 in December...
EMU Trade Shows Some Trade Flow Rebound
Trade flows are rebounding on differing dynamics in the euro area...
by Tom Moeller August 19, 2005
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has improved since the low this past March and suggests that US economic growth has strengthened. Despite a dip in July to 0.16 from 0.40 in June, the three-month moving average of the CFNAI improved to 0.23 versus the low near zero.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
| Chicago Fed | July | June | July '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.16 | 0.40 | 0.61 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.41 |
