Recent Updates
- *** Netherland's GDP Rebased to Chained 2015 Euros. We are Currently Working on Processing These Changes. **
- Belgium: Business Survey (Jun)
- Canada: CPI (May), Retail Trade (Apr)
- Manufacturing Survey - Japan, Germany, France, Euro Area, US, (Flash - Jun); Composite & Services Survey - US (Flash - June)
- Ireland: Producer & Wholesale Price Indexes (May)
- Morocco: CPI (May)
- France: GDP (Q1), Loans (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
EMU and Japan; EMU Flash PMIs Make Small Recovery
PMIs in June in the EMU area showed some respite from the steady decline in recent months...
French Manufacturing Gives Steady Signal As Services Edge Ahead
The French manufacturing sector gives a steady signal in June but at a level that is off-peak...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators' Rate of Increase Eases
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators improved 0.2% (6.1% y/y) during May...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Plunge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index retreated to 19.9 during June...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Improves Minimally
The FHFA U.S. house price index nudged 0.1% higher (6.4% y/y) during April...
by Tom Moeller August 19, 2005
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has improved since the low this past March and suggests that US economic growth has strengthened. Despite a dip in July to 0.16 from 0.40 in June, the three-month moving average of the CFNAI improved to 0.23 versus the low near zero.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
| Chicago Fed | July | June | July '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.16 | 0.40 | 0.61 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.41 |
