Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Jan)
- Flash PMIs: Australia, Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, US (Mar)
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- Canada: Retail Trade (Jan), CPI (Feb)
- Canada Regional: Retail Trade by Province (Jan), CPI by Province (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
Wholesale Inventories and Sales Rise
Wholesale inventories increased 1.2% m/m (7.7% y/y) during January...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rebound
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2% (3.0% y/y) during February...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds but Prices Weaken
The Philadelphia Fed reported in its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey that the General Business Conditions Index rebounded this month to 13.7...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 9,000 in the week ended March 16 to 221,000 from 230,000 the week before...
Canadian Growth: Headed for the Big Sleep or Just Dozing?
Canada, like much of the global economy, is showing sales weakness across sectors...
by Tom Moeller August 18, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 6,000 to 316,000 last week and reversed a revised 5,000 decline the week earlier. Consensus expectations had been for 310,000 claims.
Despite the increase, initial claims in August are 1.6% below the July average, however, the latest figure covers the survey week for August nonfarm payrolls and is up 3.6% from the July period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 312,750 (-7.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 28,000 following a deepened 16,000 decline one week earlier.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the four year low of 2.0% for the fifth consecutive week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/13/05 | 08/06/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 316 | 310 | -5.1% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,593 | -10.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
