Recent Updates

  • US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), GDP by Industry (Q3)
  • Consumer Sentiment Detail (Jan-prelim)
  • Canada: MSIO, Intl Transactions in Securities (Nov)
  • Ivory Coast: IP (Nov); South Africa: Financial Soundness Indicators (Nov); Turkey: House Sales (Dec), IIP (Nov)
  • Spain: International Trade (Nov)
  • Italy: BOP (Nov)
  • UK: Retail Sales (Dec)
  • Euro area: Balance of Payments (Nov)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

CPI Lifted By Strong Energy Prices
by Tom Moeller August 16, 2005

Consumer prices (CPI-U) rose 0.5% last month following no change in June and a 0.1% decline in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% July increase.

Energy prices jumped 3.8% led by a 6.1% (19.5% y/y) increase in gasoline prices to an average $2.29 per gallon. In August gasoline prices have risen further to $2.55 per gallon. Fuel oil prices also posted a strong 6.2% (34.3% y/y increase while natural gas prices gained 1.1% (7.1% y/y) and have strengthened further this month..

Less food & energy prices rose 0.1% for the third consecutive month. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% increase.

Core goods prices, down 0.3%, fell for the third month in the last four led by a 1.0% (+0.3% y/y) decline in new vehicle prices. Appliance prices fell 0.5% (+2.0% y/y) and apparel prices tumbled 0.9% (-1.9% y/y), down hard for the third month in the last four.

Core services prices rose 0.3% as medical care services prices doubled the gain in June with a 0.4% (4.8% y/y) increase. Public transportation prices jumped 1.0% (5.5% y/y) and school tuition costs gained 0.6% (6.6% y/y). Shelter prices rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y).

The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.4% but less food & energy chain prices were unchanged.

Consumer Price Index July June Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Total  0.5% 0.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.3% 1.6%
 Total less Food & Energy 0.1% 0.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 2.3%
  Goods less Food & Energy -0.3% -0.2% 0.4% -0.9% -2.0% -1.1%
  Services less Energy 0.3% 0.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.8%
 Energy 3.8% -0.5% 14.2% 10.9% 12.2% -5.9%
 Food 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% 3.4% 2.1% 1.8%
             
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) 0.4% -0.1% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.3%
 Total less Food & Energy 0.0% -0.2% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.9%
close
large image