Recent Updates
- US: Business Formation Statistics, Producer Prices (Jul)
- US: Producer Price Indexes Detail by Commodity Detail (Jul)
- Israel: Foreign Trade, Consumer Confidence Survey (Jul)
- Mexico: IP (Jun)
- South Africa: Mining Production (Jun)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 12, 2005
Import prices in July rose 1.1% on top of a like gain one month earlier, the increase quite a bit stronger than Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise.
Petroleum prices jumped 6.6% and in early August Brent crude rose another 8%. Yesterday Brent crude was $65.64/bbl. versus an average $57.52 in July.
Import prices other than petroleum fell for the third consecutive month, off 0.1% last month. Prices for nonauto consumer goods fell 0.2% (+1.2% y/y) and capital goods prices fell 0.7% (-0.5% y/y). Excluding computers capital goods prices were unchanged (2.5% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices rose 0.1%. Agricultural prices fell 0.2% (-1.9% y/y) and nonagricultural prices rose 0.2% (3.2% y/y).
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | 1.1% | 1.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
Petroleum | 6.6% | 7.9% | 43.0% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
Non-petroleum | -0.1% | -0.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
Export - All Commodities | 0.1% | -0.1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |