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Economy in Brief
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Surges Unexpectedly
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $204.9 billion budget deficit during November...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 206,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended December 8...
EMU Inflation Falls Back Into Place
The ECB targets inflation of just under 2%...
U.S. CPI Is Unchanged; Core Prices Increase Steadily
The Consumer Price Index held steady during November (2.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Post Another Strong Increase
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index rose 1.6% (-13.2% y/y) during the week ended December 7...
by Tom Moeller August 11, 2005
Total business inventories were unchanged in June following an unrevised 0.1% gain in May. The weakness in accumulation lowered the three month change in inventories to 1.4% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales dropped to a new record low of 1.29 as business sales rose 0.7% (7.8% y/y).
Retail inventories fell 0.4% due to strong auto sales in June and the three month change went slightly negative versus the peak of 12.4% last April. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories jumped 0.6% after an upwardly revised 0.7% May gain. Furniture inventories were again strong, up 1.3% (9.0% y/y) and inventories of apparel rose 0.9% (5.3% y/y).
Factory sector inventories fell slightly for the third consecutive month pulling three month negative for the first time since 2003.
Wholesale inventories jumped 0.7% and three month growth rose to 6.9%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
| Business Inventories | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | -0.4% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.6% | 0.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | 0.7% | 0.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | -0.0% | -0.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
