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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 11, 2005
Total business inventories were unchanged in June following an unrevised 0.1% gain in May. The weakness in accumulation lowered the three month change in inventories to 1.4% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales dropped to a new record low of 1.29 as business sales rose 0.7% (7.8% y/y).
Retail inventories fell 0.4% due to strong auto sales in June and the three month change went slightly negative versus the peak of 12.4% last April. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories jumped 0.6% after an upwardly revised 0.7% May gain. Furniture inventories were again strong, up 1.3% (9.0% y/y) and inventories of apparel rose 0.9% (5.3% y/y).
Factory sector inventories fell slightly for the third consecutive month pulling three month negative for the first time since 2003.
Wholesale inventories jumped 0.7% and three month growth rose to 6.9%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
| Business Inventories | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | -0.4% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.6% | 0.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | 0.7% | 0.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | -0.0% | -0.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
