Recent Updates
- Singapore: International Trade Press (May); China: 100 City House Prices (May)
- UK: LSL ACAD House Price Indexes (May)
- New Zealand: Motor Vehicle Registration, Performance of Service Index, Composite PMI (May)
- Japan: International Trade (May-Prelim), Output Gap/Potential GDP (Q1)
- US: TIC (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jun-prelim), IP & Capacity Utilization (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to
Strengthen
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 25.0 during June, the highest level in eight months...
EMU Trade Deficit Shrinks
The EMU trade balance shrank in April, stepping back to a surplus of 18.1 bln euros from 19.8 bln euros in March....
U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen
Consumers were in a shopping mood last month. Total retail sales increased
0.8% (5.9% y/y) during May following a 0.4% April gain...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Sustain Low Range
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 218,000 during the week ended June 9 ...
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Continues; Sales
Strengthen
Total business inventories increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) during
April following a 0.1% March slip...
by Tom Moeller August 11, 2005
Total business inventories were unchanged in June following an unrevised 0.1% gain in May. The weakness in accumulation lowered the three month change in inventories to 1.4% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales dropped to a new record low of 1.29 as business sales rose 0.7% (7.8% y/y).
Retail inventories fell 0.4% due to strong auto sales in June and the three month change went slightly negative versus the peak of 12.4% last April. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories jumped 0.6% after an upwardly revised 0.7% May gain. Furniture inventories were again strong, up 1.3% (9.0% y/y) and inventories of apparel rose 0.9% (5.3% y/y).
Factory sector inventories fell slightly for the third consecutive month pulling three month negative for the first time since 2003.
Wholesale inventories jumped 0.7% and three month growth rose to 6.9%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
| Business Inventories | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | -0.4% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.6% | 0.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | 0.7% | 0.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | -0.0% | -0.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
