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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Treasury Statement, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Slumps Again in January
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level slumped further to -0.2 in January...
ZEW Assessments Almost Universally Fall
The ZEW indexes each month center on Germany where the survey occurs and where the financial experts reside...
U.S. Industrial Production Celebrates 100 Years With An Increase
In the 100th anniversary of it release, industrial production rose a greater-than-expected 0.3% (3.9% year-on-year) during December...
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
by Tom Moeller August 11, 2005
The Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) rose a slight 0.3% in July following no change the month prior.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The slight rise reflected a reversal of the prior month's contradictory indications. In July a greater percentage of firms expected higher real sales in six months and a lower percentage expected the economy to improve.
The job outlook improved as the percentage of firms planning to raise employment recovered half of the prior month's decline an continued an up trend in place since April. The percentage of firms with one or more job openings also rose slightly. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending fell as did the percentage of firms raising average selling prices rose.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 101.1 | 100.8 | -4.5% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
