Recent Updates
- UK: National Insurance Number Allocations (Q3), Capital Issuance, Motor Vehicle Production, Average Precipitation (Oct), BoE Balance Sheets (Nov)
- Russia: Nonresident Holdings of Government Debt (Oct)
- Belarus: New Hires and Terminations (Oct)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 11, 2005
The Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) rose a slight 0.3% in July following no change the month prior.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The slight rise reflected a reversal of the prior month's contradictory indications. In July a greater percentage of firms expected higher real sales in six months and a lower percentage expected the economy to improve.
The job outlook improved as the percentage of firms planning to raise employment recovered half of the prior month's decline an continued an up trend in place since April. The percentage of firms with one or more job openings also rose slightly. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending fell as did the percentage of firms raising average selling prices rose.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 101.1 | 100.8 | -4.5% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
