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Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 11, 2005
The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies rose in June by 0.5%, the first m/m increase this year. Six month growth in the index also improved to -0.6% from -1.6% during the prior two months.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
Improvement was led by a 0.9% gain in the US leaders. This second consecutive monthly increase raised six month growth to 1.0%, the first positive reading since February. The Canadian leaders also were firm and rose 0.6%, raising six month growth to -1.7% from a recent low of -3.7%.
Leaders in the European Union (15 countries) managed a 0.1% increase following six consecutive months of decline. Six month growth remained negative at -0.3%.
German leaders rose for the second consecutive month. A 0.5% increase raised six month growth to -0.4%. The French leaders also rose by 0.3% but six month growth remained a negative 1.1%. The Italian leading index continued to decline. The 0.7% drop lowered six month growth to -3.3%, its worst 2001.
The UK leaders rose 0.1% after seven months of decline and six month growth remained negative at -0.9%. Japan leaders ticked up 0.2% This first increase of the year left six growth negative at -2.6%.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report is available here.
OECD | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Leading Index | 101.63 | 101.14 | -0.4% | 102.02 | 97.55 | 96.34 |
6 Month Growth Rate | -0.6% | -1.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% |