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Economy in Brief

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Down
by Tom Moeller August 11, 2005

Initial claims for unemployment insurance reversed all of the prior week's little revised up tick and fell 6,000 to 308,000. Consensus expectations for 315,000 claims.

The four week moving average of initial claims declined to 309,250 (-9.0% y/y), the lowest level since mid-February.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 8,000 following a deepened 22,000 decline one week earlier.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.

The insured unemployment rate remained at the four year low of 2.0% for the fourth consecutive week.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 08/06/05 07/30/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Initial Claims 308 314 -7.5% 343 402 404
Continuing Claims -- 2,573 -10.5% 2,926 3,531 3,570
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