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Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 3, 2005
Challenger, Grey & Christmas reported that job cut announcements fell 7.2% in July to 102,971 but that followed sharp gains both in May (42.2%) and June (34.9%). The three month average of job cut announcements rose to the highest level (98,750) since February.
During the last ten years there has been an 84% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements in the automotive industry fell sharply after increasing ten-fold in June. Job cuts also fell in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries but increases were quite strong in the financial, insurance, electronics and computer industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring plans rose (1.1% y/y).
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 102,971 | 110,996 | 48.0% | 1,039,175 | 1,236,426 | 1,431,052 |
