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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Decline As Interest Rates Rise
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index fell 7.1% (-23.3% y/y) in the week ending October 12...
U.S. Industrial Production Increases Moderately
The factory sector remains in good shape. Industrial production rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) during September...
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves, but Remains Below Last Year's High
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo inched up during October to 68 from an unrevised 67 in September...
U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Hits Another Record
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate rose to a record 4.6% in August...
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Ease; Natural Gas Prices Increase
Gasoline prices slipped to an average $2.88 per gallon last week (+15.7% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller August 2, 2005
Chain store sales jumped 0.9% during the final week of July according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. This fifth consecutive gain lifted sales in July 0.4% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus May.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC was unchanged (0.3% y/y).
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 07/30/05 | 07/23/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 462.8 | 456.9 | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
