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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 29, 2005
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer in July reversed much of the decline during the prior two months with a near 10 point rise versus June. At 63.5 the index stood at its highest level since April. Consensus expectations had been for near stability at 55.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
New orders improved sharply to the highest level since April and the employment index recouped the prior month's weakness with a rise to 56.1. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices also improved to its highest level since April. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | July | June | July '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Barometer | 63.5 | 53.6 | 64.5 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
New Orders | 69.6 | 56.5 | 68.9 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
Prices Paid | 61.3 | 59.7 | 80.0 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |