Recent Updates
- China: 70-City Property Prices (Nov)
- Serbia: Labor Cost Index (Q3); CPI (NOV)
- Czech Republic: Mortgage Loans (Q3)
- US: IP & Capacity Utilization, Advance Retail Sales (Nov), ECEC (Q3)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounds
Industrial production jumped a greater-than-expected 0.6% (3.9% year-on-year) during November...
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Picks Up
Total business inventories increased 0.6% (5.1% y/y) during October...
U.S. Import Prices Weaken As Petroleum Prices Fall; Export Prices Also Decline
Import prices fell 1.6% (+0.7% y/y) during November following an unrevised 0.5% October rise...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Surges Unexpectedly
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $204.9 billion budget deficit during November...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 206,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended December 8...
by Tom Moeller July 29, 2005
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer in July reversed much of the decline during the prior two months with a near 10 point rise versus June. At 63.5 the index stood at its highest level since April. Consensus expectations had been for near stability at 55.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
New orders improved sharply to the highest level since April and the employment index recouped the prior month's weakness with a rise to 56.1. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices also improved to its highest level since April. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | July | June | July '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 63.5 | 53.6 | 64.5 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| New Orders | 69.6 | 56.5 | 68.9 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 61.3 | 59.7 | 80.0 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
