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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Much Improved
by Tom Moeller July 29, 2005

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer in July reversed much of the decline during the prior two months with a near 10 point rise versus June. At 63.5 the index stood at its highest level since April. Consensus expectations had been for near stability at 55.0.

During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.

New orders improved sharply to the highest level since April and the employment index recouped the prior month's weakness with a rise to 56.1. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.

The index of prices also improved to its highest level since April. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA July June  July '04 2004 2003 2002
Business Barometer 63.5 53.6 64.5 62.9 54.6 52.8
  New Orders 69.6 56.5 68.9 67.0 58.0 56.2
Prices Paid 61.3 59.7 80.0 80.1 55.8 56.9
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