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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Fall Further
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index declined 1.3% during the last four weeks...
Japan’s METI Sector Indexes Rebound But Still Lag
Japan's economy continues to fight for revival...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Weaken, Dragging Down Prices
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes during September declined 3.4% to 5.150 million...
Canadian Retail Sales Weaken As Inflation Slows
Canada's retail sales show relatively widespread deceleration...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Strengthen
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (7.0% y/y) during September...
by Tom Moeller July 29, 2005
The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment in July matched Consensus expectations and held at the improved level of 96.5 reported mid-month. Sentiment rose 0.5% for the month on top of a 10.5% increase during June.
During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.
Consumer expectations rose slightly less than estimated earlier in the month. The 0.6% gain followed a 12.9% surge during June but the reading of current economic conditions rose slightly instead of declining as indicated earlier.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 96.5 | 96.0 | -0.2% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 113.5 | 113.2 | 7.9% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Consumer Expectations | 85.5 | 85.0 | -6.3% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
