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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Held Earlier Improvement
by Tom Moeller July 29, 2005

The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment in July matched Consensus expectations and held at the improved level of 96.5 reported mid-month. Sentiment rose 0.5% for the month on top of a 10.5% increase during June.

During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.

Consumer expectations rose slightly less than estimated earlier in the month. The 0.6% gain followed a 12.9% surge during June but the reading of current economic conditions rose slightly instead of declining as indicated earlier.

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

University of Michigan July June Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Consumer Sentiment 96.5 96.0 -0.2% 95.2 87.6 89.6
   Current Conditions 113.5 113.2 7.9% 105.6 97.2 97.5
   Consumer Expectations 85.5 85.0 -6.3% 88.5 81.4 84.6
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