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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller July 29, 2005
The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment in July matched Consensus expectations and held at the improved level of 96.5 reported mid-month. Sentiment rose 0.5% for the month on top of a 10.5% increase during June.
During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.
Consumer expectations rose slightly less than estimated earlier in the month. The 0.6% gain followed a 12.9% surge during June but the reading of current economic conditions rose slightly instead of declining as indicated earlier.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 96.5 | 96.0 | -0.2% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 113.5 | 113.2 | 7.9% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Consumer Expectations | 85.5 | 85.0 | -6.3% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
