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Economy in Brief
Italy's ISAE Sector Confidence Rebounds Then Retreats
The Italian business and consumer confidence readings are excellent examples of what much of Europe is going through right now...
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 28, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance did rise 5,000 to 310,000 last week but the increase hardly dented the 32,000 decline the week previous which was little revised. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 320,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 318,250 (-5.7% y/y), the lowest level since early March.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 32,000 after a 46,000 decline the week earlier which was deeper than initially indicated.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the four year low of 2.0%.
The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/23/05 | 07/16/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 310 | 305 | -8.8% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,603 | -11.1% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
