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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
U.S. Housing Starts Weaken Unexpectedly
Total housing starts declined 12.3% (-4.2% y/y) during June to 1.173 million (AR)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Reverse Earlier Increase
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index declined 2.5% last week (-12.8% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller July 28, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance did rise 5,000 to 310,000 last week but the increase hardly dented the 32,000 decline the week previous which was little revised. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 320,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 318,250 (-5.7% y/y), the lowest level since early March.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 32,000 after a 46,000 decline the week earlier which was deeper than initially indicated.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the four year low of 2.0%.
The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/23/05 | 07/16/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 310 | 305 | -8.8% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,603 | -11.1% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
