Recent Updates
- Bangladesh: Wage Earners Remittances (Feb)
- Qatar: Producer Price Indexes (Jan)
- Brazil: Sao Paulo CPI (Feb), PPI (Jan)
- Cyprus: GDP (Q4)
- India: Trade (Feb-Prelim), CPI Industrial Workers
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 26, 2005
Consumer Confidence in July retraced the prior month's upwardly revised increase and fell 2.8% to 103.2 according to the Conference Board. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 106.2.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation slipped for only the second month this year and the index remained up 11.4% y/y. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 23.8% of survey participants, a slight m/m increase, but the 28.7% of participants who thought that business conditions were good was the highest in four years.
Consumer expectations fell 3.5% (-11.7% y/y) to the lowest level since April. Expectations for business conditions slipped the most though expectations that jobs would increase improved and expectations that income would rise only fell modestly.
The Conference Boards survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
Conference Board | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence | 103.2 | 106.2 | -2.4% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |