Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Canada: Industrial Product Prices (Jan)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 22, 2005
The 2Q'05 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI fell to 68 from 71 the prior quarter. The latest level is the lowest level since 3Q'03.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the Composite Index Level and quarterly growth in US factory sector output.
The current orders index continued a slide begun one year ago. While the index level of 86 is down from it's peak of 93, the figures compare favorably to the lows around 30 during 2001.
The export orders index for 2Q slipped to 86 from the record level in 1Q of 90. Again, the figures remain elevated versus the average of 37 during 2001. During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the export orders index and the y/y change in real US exports.
The profit margins index likewise moved lower to the lowest level since 3Q'03.Conversely, capital spending intentions for the coming year moved higher to the highest level since 4Q'03 and during the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the capital spending index a y/y growth in business investment in equipment & software.
For the latest US Business Outlook from the MAPI click here.
Future Oil from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI Survey | 2Q'05 | 1Q'05 | 2Q'04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Business Index | 68 | 71 | 80 | 76 | 67 | 60 |