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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Again Higher
by Tom Moeller July 19, 2005

Chain store sales rose 0.3% last week for the third consecutive weekly rise, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. So far this month sales are 0.4% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus May.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell a sharp 1.1% w/w (-0.2% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.3% rise during the week prior.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 07/16/05 07/09/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 456.9 455.7 4.0% 4.6% 2.9% 3.6%
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