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Economy in Brief
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (6.4% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Hold Steady
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during August were unchanged at 5.340 million (SAAR, -1.5%)....
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Weaken Again
The Philadelphia Fed that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 22.9 during September...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edge Down Further
Initial unemployment insurance applications decreased to 201,000 (-21.2% y/y) during the week ended September 15...
U.S. Housing Starts Rebound After Two Months of Decline
New home building activity improved last month. Total housing
starts rose 9.2% during August (9.4% y/y)
Special Topics
by Tom Moeller July 19, 2005
Chain store sales rose 0.3% last week for the third consecutive weekly rise, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. So far this month sales are 0.4% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus May.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell a sharp 1.1% w/w (-0.2% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.3% rise during the week prior.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 07/16/05 | 07/09/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 456.9 | 455.7 | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
