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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Up A Bit Further
by Tom Moeller July 15, 2005

The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in July rose to 96.5 and added 0.5% to the 10.5% increase during June. Consensus expectations had been for a slight pullback to 95.0.

During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.

Consumer expectations rose 1.9% on top of the 12.9% surge during June but the reading of current economic conditions slipped 1.1%.

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

The Weak Jobs Recovery: Whatever Happened To "The American Jobs Machine"? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.

University of Michigan July June Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Consumer Sentiment 96.5 96.0 -0.2% 95.2 87.6 89.6
   Current Conditions 112.0 113.2 6.5% 105.6 97.2 97.5
   Consumer Expectations 86.6 85.0 -5.0% 88.5 81.4 84.6
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