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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 15, 2005
The producer price index for finished goods was unexpectedly unchanged last month following the 0.6% decline in May which also was unexpected. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% rise in June. Excluding food & energy prices were also surprisingly weak, falling 0.1% versus the expectation for a 0.1% rise.
Prices for core finished consumer goods fell 0.1% (+2.4% y/y) due to to a 2.0% (NSA, +1.4% y/y) decline in passenger car prices. Consumer durable goods prices overall fell 0.4% (+0.5% y/y). Showing strength, core consumer nondurable goods prices rose 0.3% (3.8% y/y) but capital goods prices fell 0.2% (+2.1% y/y).
Finished energy prices rose 2.0% (13.1% y/y) while finished food prices fell 1.1% (+0.1% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices recovered 0.1% of the prior month's sharp drop as energy prices rose 1.9% (15.0% y/y). Pricing weakness, however, was indicated by the 0.2% decline in core intermediate goods prices.
Crude prices fell another 3.3% due to the 3.1% June decline crude energy prices which has since reversed. Core crude prices added 4.3% to the May decline. Iron & steel scrap prices fell 22.1% (NSA, -15.5% y/y). During the last thirty years "core" crude prices have been a fair indicator of industrial sector activity with a 48% correlation between the six month change in core crude prices and the change in factory sector industrial production.
Producer Price Index | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Finished Goods | 0.0% | -0.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | -1.3% |
Core | -0.1% | 0.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Intermediate Goods | 0.1% | -0.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | -1.5% |
Core | -0.2% | -0.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
Crude Goods | -3.3% | -2.0% | 1.7% | 17.5% | 25.1% | -10.6% |
Core | -4.3% | -3.6% | 5.2% | 26.6% | 12.4% | 3.8% |