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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up Again
by Tom Moeller July 14, 2005

Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 16,000 to 336,000 last week after a revised 9,000 increase the week earlier. Consensus expectations had been for 320,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.

The four week moving average of initial claims was about stable at 320,750 (-5.7% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 45,000 following a revised 25,000 decline during the prior week.

The insured unemployment rate ticked up to 2.1%.

The Cost of Business Cycles for Unskilled Workers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 07/09/05 07/02/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Initial Claims 336 320 -2.0% 343 402 404
Continuing Claims -- 2,617 -10.7% 2,926 3,531 3,570
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