Recent Updates
- China: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 14, 2005
US retail sales surged 1.7% last month following a decline in May that was revised slightly shallower to -0.3%. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% increase. Sales excluding motor vehicles rose 0.7% and followed an upwardly revised no change in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% increase.
Sales at gasoline service stations rose 1.9% despite lower gas prices. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose 0.6% (7.3% y/y) following a 0.1% up tick in May.
During the last ten years there has been a 54% correlation between the level of Consumer Sentiment and the y/y change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
Spending on discretionary items was firm. Sales at furniture & electronics stores rose 0.6% (4.6% y/y) and general merchandise store sales jumped 1.2% (8.1% y/y). Apparel store sales recovered the prior month's decline and jumped 1.0% (7.6% y/y).
Building material store sales rose a modest 0.2% (9.3% y/y) following three months of firm gain.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet and catalogue) more than reversed the prior month's drop and surged 1.7% (11.9% y/y).
June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.7% | -0.3% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
Excluding Autos | 0.7% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% |