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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 14, 2005
The CPI-U was unchanged last month following a 0.1% decline in May. The figure was below Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase in June. During the first half of 2005 the CPI rose 3.1% at an annual rate.
Energy prices fell 0.5% led by a 1.2% drop in gasoline prices but gas prices so far in July have more than reversed recent months' declines, rising 5.6% to an average $2.28 per gallon and $2.33 in the latest week. Food prices rose a modest 0.1% for the second month.
Less food & energy prices rose the same 0.1% as in May and during the first six months of this year the core CPI is up 2.2% at an annual rate. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% increase in June.
Core goods prices fell for the second month in the last three. The 0.2% decline was led by a 1.3% (-2.8% y/y) drop in furniture & bedding prices and no change (+1.5% y/y) in appliance prices. Apparel prices also fell by 0.7% (-1.5% y/y) and are down 1.0% (AR) so far this year. New motor vehicle prices were unchanged (0.7% y/y) but prices for used cars & trucks rose 0.8% (7.1% y/y).
Core services prices rose a modest 0.2%. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (2.4% y/y) after two months of no change and medical care services prices rose 0.2% (4.8% y/y), the least for any month since April 2003. Public transportation prices were strong for the fourth consecutive month, up 1.2% (4.7% y/y) and school tuition costs rose 0.4% (6.6% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases fell 0.1% and less food & energy chain prices fell for the second consecutive month.
| Consumer Price Index | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0% | -0.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | -0.5% | -2.0% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | -0.1% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | -0.2% | -0.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
