Recent Updates
- UK: National Insurance Number Allocations (Q3), Capital Issuance, Motor Vehicle Production, Average Precipitation (Oct), BoE Balance Sheets (Nov)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 14, 2005
The CPI-U was unchanged last month following a 0.1% decline in May. The figure was below Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase in June. During the first half of 2005 the CPI rose 3.1% at an annual rate.
Energy prices fell 0.5% led by a 1.2% drop in gasoline prices but gas prices so far in July have more than reversed recent months' declines, rising 5.6% to an average $2.28 per gallon and $2.33 in the latest week. Food prices rose a modest 0.1% for the second month.
Less food & energy prices rose the same 0.1% as in May and during the first six months of this year the core CPI is up 2.2% at an annual rate. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% increase in June.
Core goods prices fell for the second month in the last three. The 0.2% decline was led by a 1.3% (-2.8% y/y) drop in furniture & bedding prices and no change (+1.5% y/y) in appliance prices. Apparel prices also fell by 0.7% (-1.5% y/y) and are down 1.0% (AR) so far this year. New motor vehicle prices were unchanged (0.7% y/y) but prices for used cars & trucks rose 0.8% (7.1% y/y).
Core services prices rose a modest 0.2%. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (2.4% y/y) after two months of no change and medical care services prices rose 0.2% (4.8% y/y), the least for any month since April 2003. Public transportation prices were strong for the fourth consecutive month, up 1.2% (4.7% y/y) and school tuition costs rose 0.4% (6.6% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases fell 0.1% and less food & energy chain prices fell for the second consecutive month.
| Consumer Price Index | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0% | -0.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | -0.5% | -2.0% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | -0.1% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | -0.2% | -0.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
