Recent Updates
- Taiwan: Manufacturing PMI, Non-manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- China: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2005
The U.S. federal government ran a budget surplus of $22.2B in June that was in line with Consensus estimates. The monthly surplus kept the deficit during the first nine months of FY 2005 on a pace that was nearly one quarter below the prior fiscal year's first nine months.
Net receipt growth at 14.6% for the first nine months of FY05 continued to reflect the improved economy. Individual income taxes (44% of total receipts) rose 16.3% and corporate income taxes (10% of total receipts) were strong, up 41.0%. The improved job market raised employment taxes (36% of total receipts) by 8.0%, up from 1.2% growth last year, and excise taxes grew 4.0%.
Federal outlay growth inched up to 7.3% during the first nine months of FY05 as defense spending (19% of total outlays) grew 7.1% and Medicare spending (12% of total outlays) was strong at 9.6%. Growth in spending on social security (21% of total outlays) crept up to 5.5% and spending on health programs (10% of the total) increased 4.1%. Spending on education & training (4% of the total) increased 16.0% and interest expense (8% of the total) grew 13.1% with higher interest rates versus declines last year.
White House projections of future budget deficits were updated today by the Office of Management & Budget. The estimated deficit for FY2005 was lowered to $333B (2.7% of GDP) from the February estimate of $427B (3.5% of GDP) and the estimated deficit next year was lowered to $341B (2.6% of GDP) from $390B (3.0% of GDP).
A higher estimated level of Federal tax receipts, notwithstanding reduced tax rates, offset a higher level of War funding. The economic assumptions (GDP, CPI, & the Unemployment Rate) were little changed from February.
The Mid-Session Review of the 2006 Budget of the US Government by the Office of Management and Budget is available here.
US Government Finance | June | May | FY '05 - YTD | FY2004 | FY2003 | FY2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance | $22.4B | $-35.3B | $-249.8B | $-412.1B | $-377.6B | $-157.8B |
Net Revenues | $234.8B | $152.7B | 14.6% | 5.5% | -3.8% | -6.9% |
Net Outlays | $212.4B | $188.0B | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% |