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Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2005
Total mortgage applications gave back last week most of the prior week's surge and fell 7.2, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications nevertheless remained 2.6% above the June average which rose 9.9% versus May.
Purchase applications fell 6.1% w/w after the 9.1% jump the prior period and in July are 2.7% above June which rose 1.3% from May. During the last ten years there has been a 50% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance fell for the third week in the last four but in July are 2.4% ahead of June.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage increased for the second week and rose to 5.87%. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.53% after falling from the peak of 5.96%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 07/08/05 | 07/01/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 791.9 | 853.4 | 23.0% | 735.1 | 1,067.9 | 799.7 |
Purchase | 489.0 | 520.8 | 4.3% | 454.5 | 395.1 | 354.7 |
Refinancing | 2,554.3 | 2,788.2 | 53.7% | 2,366.8 | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 |