Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Aug-prelim)
- US: Vehicle Miles Driven by State (Jun)
- Bulgaria: Agricultural PPI (Q2) Central Bank Survey (Jul)
- Blue Chip: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2005
Import prices in June recovered the prior month's revised decline with a 1.0% increase and about matched Consensus expectations.
Petroleum prices more than recovered May's decline with a 7.6% jump. In early July, Brent crude moved higher to $57.69/bbl. from an average $55.37 in June.
Import prices other than petroleum posted the second consecutive monthly decline and fell 0.4% last month. The decline primarily reflected a 1.7% drop in prices for foods, feeds & beverages.
Prices for nonauto consumer goods fell 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) and capital goods prices were unchanged (0.0% y/y). Excluding computers capital goods prices also were unchanged (2.9% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices were unchanged.
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | 1.0% | -1.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
Petroleum | 7.6% | -4.8% | 37.6% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
Non-petroleum | -0.4% | -0.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
Export - All Commodities | 0.0% | -0.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |