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Economy in Brief

Import Prices Recovered
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2005

Import prices in June recovered the prior month's revised decline with a 1.0% increase and about matched Consensus expectations.

Petroleum prices more than recovered May's decline with a 7.6% jump. In early July, Brent crude moved higher to $57.69/bbl. from an average $55.37 in June.

Import prices other than petroleum posted the second consecutive monthly decline and fell 0.4% last month. The decline primarily reflected a 1.7% drop in prices for foods, feeds & beverages.

Prices for nonauto consumer goods fell 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) and capital goods prices were unchanged (0.0% y/y). Excluding computers capital goods prices also were unchanged (2.9% y/y).

During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.

Export prices were unchanged.

Import/Export Prices (NSA) June May Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Import - All Commodities 1.0% -1.0% 7.0% 5.6% 2.9% -2.5%
  Petroleum 7.6% -4.8% 37.6% 30.5% 21.0% 3.0%
  Non-petroleum -0.4% -0.2% 2.1% 2.6% 1.1% -2.4%
Export - All Commodities 0.0% -0.2% 3.2% 3.9% 1.6% -1.0%
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