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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Inflation Rages in EMU and Hovers Globally
Inflation in the European Monetary Union in July finalizes at 8.8% year-over-year...
U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in July; Nonauto Sales Rise
Total retail sales remained unchanged during July (10.3% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 12, 2005
Chain store sales inched 0.1% higher last week following a 0.5% rise during the opening week of July, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. So far this month sales are 0.3% higher than the June average which fell 0.4% versus May.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC rose 0.4% w/w (1.0% y/y) following no change during the week prior.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Productivity and the Post-1990 U.S. Economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 07/09/05 | 07/02/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 455.7 | 455.2 | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |