Recent Updates
- Flash PMIs: France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (Nov)
- US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct)
- Canada: Investment in Nonresidential Construction(Sep)
- South Africa: Liquidations and Insolvencies (Oct)
- Lithuania: IP (Oct), Job Vacancies (Q3)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
PMIs Bend lower in EMU on Covid-19 Actions
Economies in Europe, the U.K., and even Japan are being beaten back by the Covid-19 virus...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Show Widespread Strength
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 3.1% (7.7% y/y) during the last four weeks...
U.K. Retail Sales Rebound Strongly
U.K. retail sales have rebounded strongly in October, rising by 1.4%...
U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Strengthen During October
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that sales of existing homes increased 4.3% (26.6% y/y) in October...
E-Commerce Sales Slip in Q3'20
During the third quarter of this year, retail sales via the internet (E-Commerce) eased 1.0%...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Unique Recession & Unusual Policies Create Uncertain Economic Outlook
State Labor Markets in October
Something Missing: Federal Income Taxes Are Missing the Rebound in Jobs & Income
A Vaccine Game Changer And What It Might Mean
Are Investors Prepared For A "Watershed" Election Outcome & A Rebirth of Federal Activism?
by Tom Moeller July 12, 2005
The Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) remained stable in June with the somewhat improved level in May. The stability reflected contradictory indications of a sharp rise in the percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve but a decline in the percentage expecting higher real sales in six months.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The job outlook deteriorated as the percentage of firms planning to raise employment gave back half of the improvement in May and the percentage of firms with one or more job openings dropped to a nine month low. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending was stable at a somewhat improved May level of 33%.
The percentage of firms raising average selling prices rose.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 100.8 | 100.8 | -2.1% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
