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Economy in Brief
U.S. Financial Accounts Show Moderate Borrowing, Average Ratio to GDP
rowing in U.S. financial markets slowed in Q2 2018, according to the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts data...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Diminishes
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 104.8 during November...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Fall; Crude Oil Costs Rise
Gasoline prices declined to an average $2.42 per gallon (-2.6% y/y)...
ZEW Assessments Shift and Weaken in December
The economic situation has worsened everywhere...
U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings and Hires Rates Improve
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate improved to 4.5% during October...
by Tom Moeller July 12, 2005
The Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) remained stable in June with the somewhat improved level in May. The stability reflected contradictory indications of a sharp rise in the percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve but a decline in the percentage expecting higher real sales in six months.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The job outlook deteriorated as the percentage of firms planning to raise employment gave back half of the improvement in May and the percentage of firms with one or more job openings dropped to a nine month low. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending was stable at a somewhat improved May level of 33%.
The percentage of firms raising average selling prices rose.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 100.8 | 100.8 | -2.1% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
