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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in June
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $40.1 billion (7.7% y/y) in June...
Japan's LEI Waffles and Slows
Japan's leading economic index in June slipped to 100.6...
U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Narrows in June
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) fell to $79.61 billion in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Remain on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended July 30 rose 6,000 to 260,000...
RICS Survey Shows Weakening U.K. Housing Market
With the Bank of England hiking its key rate by 50 basis points and planning to squeeze its balance sheet...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Excess Demand for Goods Caused Supply Constraints
Q2 GDP Does Not Confirm Economic Recession, But It Does Confirm A Corporate Profit Recession
State Coincident Indexes in June 2022
State Labor Markets in June 2022
No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output
by Carol Stone July 8, 2005
Six months ago, we wrote about labor market conditions in Canada, describing them as a bit shaky after three years of growth. Such hesitancy is still evident in an uneven pattern of employment gains, slow in the first quarter and picking up slightly in the second. Data for June were reported this morning by Statistics Canada. These latest employment increases are sufficient however, to cut the unemployment rate. It reached 6.7% in June, the lowest since June 2000, which in turn was the lowest since March 1976.
Among sectors of the economy, factory employment is continuing an uneven trend. June's modest increase follows a sizable monthly decline in May and the year-on-year performance, at -3.4%, is among the weakest since the recession in the early 1990s. Services are also remarkably sluggish, dragged down interestingly by health care and also accommodation and food services. The finance sector and business services, by contrast, are quite strong. Also strong is construction, with a remarkable 12-month increase of 7.6% through June. Persistently low interest rates in Canada, as in the United States, are facilitating considerable building.
The low unemployment rate would be cause for greater enthusiasm, but for slow growth in the labor force. As evident in the table below and in the second graph, the total number of people working or available for work has shown progressive deceleration. Two of the last three months have seen 12-month percentage changes below 1%, the first time since 1996 that even a single month has been that low.
Canada Thousands |
June 2005 | May 2005 | June 2004 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Employment | +14 | +35 | +1.3% | +1.8% | +2.3% | +2.4% |
Manufacturing | +6 | -19 | -3.4% | +0.6% | -0.3% | +2.7% |
Construction | +21 | -15 | +7.6% | +5.1% | +5.0% | +4.7% |
Services Producing | -19 | +46 | +1.5% | +1.9% | +2.7% | +2.3% |
Labor Force | -2 | +41 | +0.8% | +1.4% | +2.3% | +2.9% |
Unemployment Rate | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% |