Recent Updates
- Netherlands: Household Consumption
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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Growth Continues; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index dipped to 22.2 during October...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 210,000 (-8.7% y/y) during the week ended October 13...
U.K. Retail Sales: Doing Well-As-Can-Be-Expected Despite September Drop
U.K. retail sales and growth have all held up remarkably well- so far...
U.S. Housing Starts Decline
Total housing starts fell 5.3% during September to 1.201 million units (AR)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Decline As Interest Rates Rise
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index fell 7.1% (-23.3% y/y) in the week ending October 12...
by Tom Moeller July 7, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up 7,000 to 319,000 last week after a 4,000 drop the week earlier that was slightly shallower than the decline initially indicated. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 318,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 320,500 (-5.7% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 16,000 following a revised 1,000 up tick during the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.0%, the low for this cycle.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/02/05 | 06/25/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 319 | 312 | -1.2% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,581 | -10.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
