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- Denmark: Consumer Confidence (Jan)
- Sweden: TNS Prospera Survey (Jan)
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- Japan: Real Trade Index, International Trade (Dec), All Industry Activity Indexes, Monthly Labor Survey, Wage Indexes, Hours Worked (Nov), Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q4)
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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Treasury Statement, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Slumps Again in January
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level slumped further to -0.2 in January...
ZEW Assessments Almost Universally Fall
The ZEW indexes each month center on Germany where the survey occurs and where the financial experts reside...
U.S. Industrial Production Celebrates 100 Years With An Increase
In the 100th anniversary of it release, industrial production rose a greater-than-expected 0.3% (3.9% year-on-year) during December...
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
by Tom Moeller July 7, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up 7,000 to 319,000 last week after a 4,000 drop the week earlier that was slightly shallower than the decline initially indicated. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 318,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 320,500 (-5.7% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 16,000 following a revised 1,000 up tick during the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.0%, the low for this cycle.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/02/05 | 06/25/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 319 | 312 | -1.2% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,581 | -10.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
