Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
- Serbia: PPI (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 7, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up 7,000 to 319,000 last week after a 4,000 drop the week earlier that was slightly shallower than the decline initially indicated. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 318,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 320,500 (-5.7% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 16,000 following a revised 1,000 up tick during the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.0%, the low for this cycle.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/02/05 | 06/25/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 319 | 312 | -1.2% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,581 | -10.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |