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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales: July Began Firmer
by Tom Moeller July 6, 2005

Chain store sales rose 0.5% during the opening week of July following a like-sized drop the prior week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Sales began the month 0.2% above the June average which fell 0.4% versus May.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC ticked 0.1% higher w/w (+2.2% y/y) following a 0.2% decline the week prior.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 07/02/05 06/25/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 455.2 453.0 3.8% 4.6% 2.9% 3.6%
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