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by Tom Moeller July 6, 2005
Chain store sales rose 0.5% during the opening week of July following a like-sized drop the prior week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Sales began the month 0.2% above the June average which fell 0.4% versus May.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC ticked 0.1% higher w/w (+2.2% y/y) following a 0.2% decline the week prior.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 07/02/05 | 06/25/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 455.2 | 453.0 | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
