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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller July 1, 2005
The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment in June extended the early-month improvement and rose 10.5% versus May to 96.0, the highest level this year. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 94.6.
During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.
The reading of current economic conditions improved sharply late in the month and for June overall rose 7.9% to the highest level since late 2000.
Consumer expectations added slightly to the gain earlier in the month and surged 12.9% following five months of decline.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
Consumption Taxes: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
| University of Michigan | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 96.0 | 86.9 | 0.4% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 113.2 | 104.9 | 6.1% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Consumer Expectations | 85.0 | 75.3 | -4.0% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
