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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Interest Rates Continue to Increase
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index declined 11.4%...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases in February
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.7% (-31.1% y/y) to 91.3 during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Rise Markedly
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.1% m/m in December...
U.S. Energy Prices Surge as Texas Freeze Limits Supply
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.63 per gallon (6.8% y/y) in the week ended February 22...
EMU HICP Makes First Year-on-Year Rise since July
The EMU headline rose by 0.8% in January, its first year-on-year gain in six months...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 1, 2005
The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment in June extended the early-month improvement and rose 10.5% versus May to 96.0, the highest level this year. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 94.6.
During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.
The reading of current economic conditions improved sharply late in the month and for June overall rose 7.9% to the highest level since late 2000.
Consumer expectations added slightly to the gain earlier in the month and surged 12.9% following five months of decline.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
Consumption Taxes: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
University of Michigan | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 96.0 | 86.9 | 0.4% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 113.2 | 104.9 | 6.1% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Consumer Expectations | 85.0 | 75.3 | -4.0% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |