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Economy in Brief
Wholesale Inventories and Sales Rise
Wholesale inventories increased 1.2% m/m (7.7% y/y) during January...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rebound
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2% (3.0% y/y) during February...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds but Prices Weaken
The Philadelphia Fed reported in its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey that the General Business Conditions Index rebounded this month to 13.7...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 9,000 in the week ended March 16 to 221,000 from 230,000 the week before...
Canadian Growth: Headed for the Big Sleep or Just Dozing?
Canada, like much of the global economy, is showing sales weakness across sectors...
by Tom Moeller June 30, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped another 6,000 to 310,000 last week following a 19,000 decline the week prior that was revised slightly shallower. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 325,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 323,500 (-6.4% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose a slight 4,000 following a deepened 42,000 drop the week prior.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.0%, the low for this cycle.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/25/05 | 06/18/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 310 | 316 | -10.7% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,600 | -11.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
