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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Further
by Tom Moeller June 30, 2005

Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped another 6,000 to 310,000 last week following a 19,000 decline the week prior that was revised slightly shallower. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 325,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.

The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 323,500 (-6.4% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose a slight 4,000 following a deepened 42,000 drop the week prior.

The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.0%, the low for this cycle.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/25/05 06/18/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Initial Claims 310 316 -10.7% 343 402 404
Continuing Claims -- 2,600 -11.7% 2,926 3,531 3,570
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