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Economy in Brief
U.S. Business Inventories Rise Moderately; Sales Strengthen
Total business inventories increased 0.4% (4.4% y/y) during May...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines to a Still Elevated Level
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 22.6 in July...
EMU Export and Import Growth Both Slow As Surplus Shrinks
Both exports and imports have been losing momentum...
U.S. Import Prices Decline; Export Prices Rise
Import prices declined 0.4% during June (+4.3%)...
French Retail Sales Rebound In June But Do Not Convince
French retail sales rebounded in June after falling for two consecutive months...
by Tom Moeller June 30, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped another 6,000 to 310,000 last week following a 19,000 decline the week prior that was revised slightly shallower. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 325,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 323,500 (-6.4% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose a slight 4,000 following a deepened 42,000 drop the week prior.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.0%, the low for this cycle.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/25/05 | 06/18/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 310 | 316 | -10.7% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,600 | -11.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
