Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
- Serbia: PPI (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 30, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped another 6,000 to 310,000 last week following a 19,000 decline the week prior that was revised slightly shallower. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 325,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 323,500 (-6.4% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose a slight 4,000 following a deepened 42,000 drop the week prior.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.0%, the low for this cycle.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/25/05 | 06/18/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 310 | 316 | -10.7% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,600 | -11.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |