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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Fell Again
by Tom Moeller June 30, 2005

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell again in June to 53.6, the lowest level in two years. Consensus expectations had been for a slight increase to 54.5.

During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.

New orders fell for the third consecutive month and the employment index dropped to 48.9, below 50 for the first month since July of last year. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.

The index of prices rose moderately. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA June May  June '04 2004 2003 2002
Business Barometer 53.6 54.1 57.5 62.9 54.6 52.8
  New Orders 56.5 57.9 58.3 67.0 58.0 56.2
Prices Paid 59.7 54.3 83.9 80.1 55.8 56.9
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