Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
- Serbia: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 29, 2005
US real GDP growth in 1Q '05 was revised up further to 3.8% (AR), in line with Consensus expectations.
Corporate profit growth (w/IVA & CCA) also was revised up to 6.0% (15.4% y/y) versus the preliminary estimate of a 4.5% increase. Profitability amongst US nonfinancial corporations rose 3.4% (22.6% y/y) instead of declining 0.8% as initially estimated.
The upward revision to profits stemmed from an increase in profit margins which were initially estimated to have declined.
Growth in domestic demand growth also was revised up to 3.5% Growth in business investment was raised slightly to 4.1% (10.9% y/y) and growth in residential building was raised sharply to 11.5% (8.1% y/y). Real PCE growth was left unchanged at 3.6% (3.6% y/y).
The drag on US output growth from a larger foreign trade deficit was little changed as exports grew 8.9% and imports rose 9.6% while the contribution to GDP growth from faster inventory accumulation also was little revised at 0.7%.
The chain price index was revised down to 2.9% growth as the price index for domestic demand was lowered to 2.7% (2.7% y/y).
| Chained 2000$, % AR | 1Q '05 (Final) | 1Q '05 (Prelim.) | 4Q '04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Inventory Effect | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| Final Sales | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Foreign Trade Effect | -0.6% | -0.7% | -1.4% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Chained GDP Price Index | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
