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Economy in Brief
EMU and Japan; EMU Flash PMIs Make Small Recovery
PMIs in June in the EMU area showed some respite from the steady decline in recent months...
French Manufacturing Gives Steady Signal As Services Edge Ahead
The French manufacturing sector gives a steady signal in June but at a level that is off-peak...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators' Rate of Increase Eases
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators improved 0.2% (6.1% y/y) during May...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Plunge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index retreated to 19.9 during June...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Improves Minimally
The FHFA U.S. house price index nudged 0.1% higher (6.4% y/y) during April...
by Tom Moeller June 29, 2005
US real GDP growth in 1Q '05 was revised up further to 3.8% (AR), in line with Consensus expectations.
Corporate profit growth (w/IVA & CCA) also was revised up to 6.0% (15.4% y/y) versus the preliminary estimate of a 4.5% increase. Profitability amongst US nonfinancial corporations rose 3.4% (22.6% y/y) instead of declining 0.8% as initially estimated.
The upward revision to profits stemmed from an increase in profit margins which were initially estimated to have declined.
Growth in domestic demand growth also was revised up to 3.5% Growth in business investment was raised slightly to 4.1% (10.9% y/y) and growth in residential building was raised sharply to 11.5% (8.1% y/y). Real PCE growth was left unchanged at 3.6% (3.6% y/y).
The drag on US output growth from a larger foreign trade deficit was little changed as exports grew 8.9% and imports rose 9.6% while the contribution to GDP growth from faster inventory accumulation also was little revised at 0.7%.
The chain price index was revised down to 2.9% growth as the price index for domestic demand was lowered to 2.7% (2.7% y/y).
| Chained 2000$, % AR | 1Q '05 (Final) | 1Q '05 (Prelim.) | 4Q '04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Inventory Effect | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| Final Sales | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Foreign Trade Effect | -0.6% | -0.7% | -1.4% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Chained GDP Price Index | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
