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Economy in Brief

Consumer Confidence Rose Again
by Tom Moeller June 28, 2005

The Index of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board rose another 2.6% in June to 105.8 following an upwardly revised gain in May. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 104.1.

During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.

Consumer expectations rose again for the second month to the highest level since February (-5.0% y/y). Expectations for business conditions and income rose.

The present situation index rose for the fifth month this year (+14.0% y/y). Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a net 22.6% of survey participants, near the lowest level in three years.

The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

Conference Board June May Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Consumer Confidence 105.8 103.1 2.9% 96.1 79.8 96.6
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