Recent Updates
- China: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 28, 2005
The Index of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board rose another 2.6% in June to 105.8 following an upwardly revised gain in May. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 104.1.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumer expectations rose again for the second month to the highest level since February (-5.0% y/y). Expectations for business conditions and income rose.
The present situation index rose for the fifth month this year (+14.0% y/y). Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a net 22.6% of survey participants, near the lowest level in three years.
The Conference Boards survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
Conference Board | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence | 105.8 | 103.1 | 2.9% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |