Recent Updates
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley June 28, 2005
Business confidence in both France and Italy had remained unchanged or declined in the months since October, 2004 through May 2005. In June, however, business confidence in France rose, but confidence in Italy continued to weaken.The attached chart show the French and Italian measures of business confidence.
The composite business climate indicator for France rose 2.1% to 99 (100 being the long term average) in June. The rise has been attributed to the euro's recent decline against the dollar and to the 4.5 billion euro plan announced June 8 by Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin to increase employment.
The decline in the Euro failed to raise confidence in Italy but it may have been a factor in reducing the extent of the decline. The ISAE (Instituto de Studi e Analisis Economica) index of business confidence declined only 0.12% in June, in contrast to the 0.59% decline in May and 0.24% in April. The pessimism of Italian businessmen has no doubt been influenced by the fact that Italy has experienced two successive quarters of decline in real gross domestic product; -0.44% in the fourth quarter of 2004 and -0.51% in the first quarter of 2005. In France, on the other hand, GDP has increased of 0.67% and 0.21% in the corresponding periods.
As we have noted in previous commentaries on confidence, the recent rise in the price of oil has yet to be reflected in the confidence indicators.
Jun 05 | May 05 | Jun 04 | M/M% | Y/Y% | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
France | ||||||||
Composite Business Climate Indicator (Long Term Average = 100) | 99 | 97 | 105 | 2.06 | -5.71 | 105 | 95 | 97 |
Italy | ||||||||
ISAE Indicator of Business Confidence (2000 = 100) | 84.2 | 84.3 | 90.4 | -0.12 | -6.86 | 89.5 | 88.0 | 90.1 |