Recent Updates
- US: Public Debt (Feb), Mfrs' Shipments Inventories & Orders (Jan), Productivity & Costs with Revisions (Q4)
- Global Sector PMIs (Feb)
- Canada: Labor Productivity & Unit Labor Cost (Q4)
- Philippines: Int'l Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley June 27, 2005
German business confidence improved in June after having declined in the four previous months according to the IFO Institute's survey of some 7,700 entrepreneurs. The data confirm the slight improvement in confidence shown by the institutional investors and analysts in the Zew Index published last week. The decline in the Euro has been cited in both cases as a cause of improved confidence as has the prospect of a Fall election that could lead to more business friendly economic and social reforms. The impact of the recent rise in the price of oil, however, has yet to be reflected in the confidence measures.
The preliminary results of the IFO survey published today include the business climate, the current situation and the expectations for six months ahead indexes. In addition, the percentage balances of opinion on the climate for manufacturing, wholesale, retail trade, construction and total businesses are published. The complete data, of indexes and percentage balances for detailed industries, will be published later in the week. The data released so far show that balance of opinion in the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade areas has become less negative in June, but has become more negative in the construction industry.
The Business Climate index reflects both current conditions and expectations. In June both current conditions and expectations rose slightly, but while current conditions were also above June, 2004, expectations were 1.5% below the year ago figure. The indexes of current conditions and expectations of conditions six months ahead are plotted in the attached chart.
Germany | Jun 05 | May 05 | Jun 04 | M/M % | Y/Y % | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indexes 2000=100 | ||||||||
Business Climate | 93.3 | 92.9 | 94.7 | 0.43 | -1.48 | -5.7 | 91.7 | 89.4 |
Current Conditions | 93.7 | 93.4 | 93.3 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 94.0 | 88.4 | 85.3 |
Expectation 6 mo, ahead | 92.9 | 92.3 | 96.1 | 0.43 | -1.48 | 97.4 | 95.1 | 93.9 |
Percent Balances | M/M dif | Y/Y dif | ||||||
Total | -14.2 | -15.1 | -11.5 | 0.9 | -2.7 | -9.5 | -17.5 | -21.9 |
Manufacturing | -5.3 | -5.6 | 3.0 | 0.3 | -8.3 | 4.5 | -7.9 | -10.2 |
Retail Trade | -21.0 | -25.8 | -29.8 | 4.8 | 8.8 | -27.6 | -25.4 | -40.1 |
Wholesale Trade | -18.2 | -22.0 | -22.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | -17.2 | -24.5 | -29.8 |
Construction | -42.1 | -37.6 | -42.8 | -4.5 | 0.7 | -42.6 | -42.8 | -44.5 |