Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
- Serbia: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 27, 2005
Liquidity growth in the US has slowed markedly this year versus the charged growth rates during the prior three years. Growth during the last three months in the adjusted monetary base fell to 1.2% versus 5.3% growth last year and 8.6% growth during 2002.
Contributing to this slowdown, if not causing it, has been the increase in the targeted interest rate for Fed funds to 3.0% from 1.0%.
Growth in MZM also has slowed to 0.8% during the last three months versus 3.9% during 2004 and 13.0% growth during 2002. The pickup in the most recent MZM growth rate from below zero may indicate continued life for consumer spending.
A Neutral Federal Funds Rate? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Money Supply | 6/22/05 (13 Week %, AR) | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Monetary Base | 1.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% |
| MZM | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 13.0% |
