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Economy in Brief
Italy's ISAE Sector Confidence Rebounds Then Retreats
The Italian business and consumer confidence readings are excellent examples of what much of Europe is going through right now...
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 27, 2005
At 0.10 in May, the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago continued to suggest that US economic growth has slowed.The slowdown, however, would be from the heady rates of growth during 2004 near 4%.
The May figure left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at -0.01.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
| Chicago Fed | May | April | May '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.57 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
