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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Indicates Trend US GDP Growth
by Tom Moeller June 27, 2005

At 0.10 in May, the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago continued to suggest that US economic growth has slowed.The slowdown, however, would be from the heady rates of growth during 2004 near 4%.

The May figure left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at -0.01.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The latest CFNAI report is available here.

Chicago Fed May April May '04 2004 2003 2002
CFNAI 0.10 0.05 0.57 0.39 -0.11 -0.40
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