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Economy in Brief
U.S. Current Account Deficit Declines
The U.S. current account deficit fell to $101.5 billion
during Q2 2018 from $121.7 billion in Q1...
UK Inflation Perks Up Unexpectedly
The UK inflation rate rose unexpectedly in August headline inflation zoomed to a 2.7% annual rate...
U.S. Home Builder Index Holds Steady
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National
Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo remained unchanged during September at 67...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Drift Sideways
Canadian Factory Sector Looks Solid
Canadian factory orders fell for the second month in a row in July but because of an order surge back in May...
Special Topics
by Tom Moeller June 27, 2005
At 0.10 in May, the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago continued to suggest that US economic growth has slowed.The slowdown, however, would be from the heady rates of growth during 2004 near 4%.
The May figure left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at -0.01.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
| Chicago Fed | May | April | May '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.57 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
