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Economy in Brief
U.S. Current Account Deficit Widens
The U.S. current account deficit rose to $124.1 billion during Q1 2018...
German PPI Sees Pressure, But Core Rate Is Much Less Affected
Germany has a history of being ‘unreasonable’ about inflation...
U.S. Housing Starts Recover to 11-Year High
Total housing starts rose 5.0% (20.3% y/y) during May to 1.350 million units (SAAR)...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
Retail gasoline prices slipped to $2.88 per gallon last week (+24.2% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Backpedals
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo fell 2.9% (+3.0% y/y) to 68 during June ...
by Tom Moeller June 27, 2005
At 0.10 in May, the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago continued to suggest that US economic growth has slowed.The slowdown, however, would be from the heady rates of growth during 2004 near 4%.
The May figure left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at -0.01.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
| Chicago Fed | May | April | May '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.57 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
