Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
- Serbia: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 23, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell a sharp 20,000 to 314,000 last week, the lowest level in two months. Consensus expectations had been for 330,000 claims and the prior week's figure was revised up slightly.
The latest figure covers the survey period for nonfarm payrolls in June and was down 8,000 (-2.5%) from the May period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 333,000 (-3.5% y/y).
A 38,000 decline in continuing claims for unemployment insurance retraced most of the prior week's downwardly revised 56,000 jump.
The insured unemployment rate fell back to 2.0% from 2.1% the prior week.
More Life vs. More Goods: Explaining Rising Health Expenditures from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/18/05 | 06/11/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 314 | 334 | -9.8% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,600 | -11.9% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |