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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley June 21, 2005
The analysts and institutional investors who participate in the ZEW Survey continue to be pessimistic about current conditions in the German economy. The balance between optimists and pessimists has average about -70 for the past year or so, indicating that the percentage of optimists has been roughly 15%, while that of the pessimists has been 85%. The first chart shows the balance of optimists over pessimists for current conditions and for the six month's outlook.
The participants have tended to be more optimistic regarding the outlook six months ahead. But even here they are loosing heart. While the balance of optimists over pessimists rose to 19.5% in June from 13.9% in May, the balance is will below the 47.4% of June, 2004. The actual percentage of optimists rose to 59.75%in June from 56.95 in May, but was well below the 73.7% percentage of optimists in June 2004.
The recent decline in the euro may have helped to raise the June percentage of optimists regarding the six month's outlook, but the more recent rise in the price of oil is likely to have an opposite effect in the months to come. The daily value of the Euro in U. S. dollars and the dollar price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil since early this year are shown in the second chart.
Germany | Jun 05 | May 05 | Jun 04 | M/M dif | Y/Y dif | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Appraisal Balance | -70.0 | -69.3 | -69.8 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -67.7 | -92.3 | -83.3 |
Percentage Optimists | 15.0 | 15.35 | 15.10 | 16.15 | 3.85 | 8.35 | ||
Percentage Pessimists | 85.0 | 84.65 | 84.90 | 83.85 | 96.15 | 91.65 | ||
6 Months Hence Appraisal | 19.5 | 13.9 | 47.4 | 5.6 | -27.9 | 44.6 | 38.4 | 45.3 |
Percentage Optimists | 59.75 | 56.95 | 73.7 | 72.3 | 69.2 | 72.65 | ||
Percentage Pessimists | 40.25 | 43.05 | 26.3 | 27.7 | 31.8 | 27.35 |