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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Inflation Rages in EMU and Hovers Globally
Inflation in the European Monetary Union in July finalizes at 8.8% year-over-year...
U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in July; Nonauto Sales Rise
Total retail sales remained unchanged during July (10.3% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 22, 2005
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that last week, total mortgage applications retraced more than half of the prior week's surge and fell 11.3% w/w. Nevertheless, applications so far in June remain 11.0% ahead of the May average which rose 6.5% versus April.
Purchase applications retraced all of the prior week's surge and fell 9.4% w/w. In June, applications are 2.2% ahead of May which rose 3.1% from April. During the last ten years there has been a 50% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance reversed about one third of the prior week's 25.6% w/w jump. In June refis are 22.4% ahead of May.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage was about unchanged w/w at 5.86% and remained down from the 5.92% averaged during May. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage rose to 5.54%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
The latest National Delinquency Survey from the the Mortgage Bankers Association can be viewed here.
Is the Bond Market Irrational? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
Social Security, Saving, and Wealth Accumulation also from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 06/17/05 | 06/10/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 786.8 | 887.0 | 30.9% | 735.1 | 1,067.9 | 799.7 |
Purchase | 479.4 | 529.3 | 5.5% | 454.5 | 395.1 | 354.7 |
Refinancing | 2,575.0 | 2,967.4 | 77.0% | 2,366.8 | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 |