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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Rose For Third Week
by Tom Moeller June 21, 2005

Chain store sales inched up another 0.1% last week following gains of 0.6% and 0.4% during the prior two periods according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. So far in June sales are 0.3% below the prior month's average because of sharp declines through most of May.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 0.9% w/w (3.0% y/y) for the second consecutive week.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

What Difference Would An Inflation Target Make? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 06/18/05 06/11/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 455.9 455.5 3.7% 4.6% 2.9% 3.6%
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