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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller June 17, 2005
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in June improved a sharp 9.1% versus May to 94.8. Sentiment rose to the highest level since January. Consensus expectations had been for a level of 88.7.
During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.
Consumer expectations surged a sharp 12.6% following five months of decline.
The reading of current economic conditions also rose 5.2% to the highest level since January.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 94.8 | 86.9 | -0.8% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 110.4 | 104.9 | 3.5% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Consumer Expectations | 84.8 | 75.3 | -4.2% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
