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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improved
by Tom Moeller June 17, 2005

The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in June improved a sharp 9.1% versus May to 94.8. Sentiment rose to the highest level since January. Consensus expectations had been for a level of 88.7.

During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.

Consumer expectations surged a sharp 12.6% following five months of decline.

The reading of current economic conditions also rose 5.2% to the highest level since January.

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan June May Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Consumer Sentiment 94.8 86.9 -0.8% 95.2 87.6 89.6
   Current Conditions 110.4 104.9 3.5% 105.6 97.2 97.5
   Consumer Expectations 84.8 75.3 -4.2% 88.5 81.4 84.6
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