Recent Updates
- ** Australia building activity and value of private construction have changed reference year from Q3:15-Q2:16 to Q3:16-Q2:17.**
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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Weakens Sharply
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions declined to 3.9 in January...
U.S. Prices of Energy Products Are Mixed
Gasoline prices averaged a fairly steady $2.25 per gallon this past week (-12.1% y/y)...
EMU Trade Balance Stays Stubbornly Large
The EMU trade balance widened to 15.1 billion euros in November from 13.5 billion euros in October...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Exhibit Broad-based Weakness
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index has been weakening since late-June...
by Tom Moeller June 17, 2005
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in June improved a sharp 9.1% versus May to 94.8. Sentiment rose to the highest level since January. Consensus expectations had been for a level of 88.7.
During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.
Consumer expectations surged a sharp 12.6% following five months of decline.
The reading of current economic conditions also rose 5.2% to the highest level since January.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 94.8 | 86.9 | -0.8% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 110.4 | 104.9 | 3.5% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Consumer Expectations | 84.8 | 75.3 | -4.2% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
