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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
U.S. Housing Starts Weaken Unexpectedly
Total housing starts declined 12.3% (-4.2% y/y) during June to 1.173 million (AR)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Reverse Earlier Increase
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index declined 2.5% last week (-12.8% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller June 16, 2005
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Composite Housing Market Index rose to 71 in June, returning to the record high level reached last December.
During the last twenty years, annual changes in the composite index had an 83% correlation with the change in new home sales. There's been an 86% correlation with the change in single family housing starts.
For the second month, all of the June index components improved. The index for current sales of single family homes was up 4.1% y/y and the index gauging expected sales in six months increased 5.3% y/y.
Traffic of prospective home buyers rose nearly to the record high level.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Visit the National Association of Home Builders.
| Nat'l Association of Home Builders | June | May | June '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index | 71 | 70 | 68 | 68 | 64 | 61 |
