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Economy in Brief

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Flat
by Tom Moeller June 16, 2005

Initial claims for unemployment insurance remained about flat last week, rising 1,000 to 333,000 from an upwardly revised level the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 328,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.

The four week moving average of initial claims increased modestly to 335,000 (-2.7% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 58,000 following a deepened 9,000 decline the prior week.

The insured unemployment rate increased slightly to 2.1% after seven weeks at 2.0%.

The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Board covering regional economic conditions is available here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/11/05 06/04/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Initial Claims 333 332 -2.3% 343 402 404
Continuing Claims -- 2,641 -9.1% 2,926 3,531 3,570
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