Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Aug-prelim)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 16, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance remained about flat last week, rising 1,000 to 333,000 from an upwardly revised level the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 328,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims increased modestly to 335,000 (-2.7% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 58,000 following a deepened 9,000 decline the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate increased slightly to 2.1% after seven weeks at 2.0%.
The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Board covering regional economic conditions is available here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/11/05 | 06/04/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 333 | 332 | -2.3% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,641 | -9.1% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |