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Economy in Brief

Empire State Index Again Positive
by Tom Moeller June 15, 2005

The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions in New York's manufacturing industries turned positive in June with a rise to 11.65 following a one blip into negative territory during May.

The new orders component jumped to +8.23 following two months negative and the shipments index also was slightly positive after two months negative. The employment index recovered but still indicated little if any job growth. Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.

The prices paid index fell to the lowest level since last January.

Expectations for business conditions in six months continued the slide which began in late 2003. Expectations for future capital spending dropped sharply to the lowest since April 2003.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey June May June '04 2004 2003 2002
General Business Conditions (diffusion index) 11.65 -11.06 30.19 28.76 16.17 7.19
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