Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), IP & Capacity Utilization (Dec)
- Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim)
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- Canada: CPI (Dec), Intl Transactions in Securities (Nov)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2005
The Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) improved 1.0% in May and recovered less than a third of the prior month's decline. The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve remained unchanged at a low 5%.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The job outlook brightened a bit as the percentage of firms planning to raise employment rose to 15% but remained down from the 20% of December 2003. The percentage of firms with one or more job openings remained stable at 23% which was up from the low of 18% during 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending ticked up to 33% but remained well off the 38% this past December.
The percentage of firms raising average selling prices remained down at 23%.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | May | April | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 100.8 | 99.8 | -3.5% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
