Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (May)
- Lithuania: Foreign Reserves (May-Prelim), Macroeconomic Projections (Q2)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (May)
- Canada: Labor Force Survey (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Continues to Decline
Cautious spending breeds less credit usage...
German Orders Plunge in April
Germany's orders plunged in April, falling by 25.8% m/m...
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens; Exports & Imports Fall by Record Amounts in April
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $49.41 billion during April...
U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Revised Up for Q1'20
Output per hour revised up on weaker hours worked...
State & Pandemic Assistance Continuing Claims Total 32.5 Million
Initial jobless claims decreased to a still extremely-elevated 1.877 million in the week ending May 30...
Special Topics
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2005
The Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) improved 1.0% in May and recovered less than a third of the prior month's decline. The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve remained unchanged at a low 5%.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The job outlook brightened a bit as the percentage of firms planning to raise employment rose to 15% but remained down from the 20% of December 2003. The percentage of firms with one or more job openings remained stable at 23% which was up from the low of 18% during 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending ticked up to 33% but remained well off the 38% this past December.
The percentage of firms raising average selling prices remained down at 23%.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | May | April | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 100.8 | 99.8 | -3.5% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
