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Special Topics
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2005
Chain store sales increased 0.6% last week and added to the 0.4% gain during the opening week of June according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The increases left sales so far in June 0.5% below the May average which rose 0.3% versus April.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 0.9% w/w (+2.2% y/y), the strongest gain in a year.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 06/11/05 | 06/04/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 452.9 | 451.2 | 3.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
