Recent Updates
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- US: Empire State Mfg Survey (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 10, 2005
Import prices fell 1.3% last month after an upwardly revised 1.2% April surge. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% decline.
Petroleum prices slumped 6.5% in May and were the source of April's upward revision. In June, crude oil prices have recovered all of the May decline and moved to $53.18 for Brent Crude.
Import prices other than petroleum fell 0.3% last month though price declines were limited.
Prices for nonauto consumer goods rose 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) but capital goods prices were unchanged (-0.3% y/y). Excluding computers capital goods prices rose another 0.3% (2.7% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices reversed some of the prior month's gain with a 0.1% decline.
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | May | April | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | -1.3% | 1.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
Petroleum | -6.5% | 5.4% | 26.2% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
Non-petroleum | -0.3% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
Export - All Commodities | -0.1% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |