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Economy in Brief

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Back Down
by Tom Moeller June 9, 2005

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 21,000 to 330,000 last week and reversed most of the prior period's slightly revised jump. Consensus expectations had been for 335,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.

The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 331,750 (-4.2% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 4,000 following a downwardly revised gain the prior week.

The insured unemployment rate remained stable at 2.0% for the seventh consecutive week.

Equilibrium Models of Personal Bankruptcy: A Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/04/05 05/28/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Initial Claims 330 351 -4.9% 343 402 404
Continuing Claims -- 2,588 -10.3% 2,926 3,531 3,570
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