Recent Updates
- Slovenia: PPI (Jul)
- Peru: Balance of Payments (Q2) 08?19 EMERGEPR Taiwan: Industrial Production (Jun), New Motor Vehicle Registration (Jul), BOP, External Debt (Q2)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Inflation Rages in EMU and Hovers Globally
Inflation in the European Monetary Union in July finalizes at 8.8% year-over-year...
U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in July; Nonauto Sales Rise
Total retail sales remained unchanged during July (10.3% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 9, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 21,000 to 330,000 last week and reversed most of the prior period's slightly revised jump. Consensus expectations had been for 335,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 331,750 (-4.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 4,000 following a downwardly revised gain the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate remained stable at 2.0% for the seventh consecutive week.
Equilibrium Models of Personal Bankruptcy: A Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/04/05 | 05/28/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 330 | 351 | -4.9% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,588 | -10.3% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |